The Z Factor

What Do Young Voters Want?

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October 22, 2024

With Guests:

Anil Cacodcar is the Student Chair of the Harvard Public Opinion Project, which runs the nation’s largest poll on the political opinions and civic attitudes of young Americans. A junior at Harvard from Lafayette, Louisiana, Anil studies Economics and Human Developmental & Regenerative Biology. 

 

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In this Episode:

In our opening episode, I want to level-set by learning a bit about Generation Z as a whole. What are we thinking about? What do we care about? And I thought we’d dive into that with some good old-fashioned polling. I’m thrilled to welcome Anil Cacodcar, the student chair of the Harvard Public Opinion Project, which has been conducting the leading biannual poll of young Americans in the country for over two decades.

 

Meet Anoushka Chander:

Anoushka Chander is a senior at Harvard College from Washington, D.C. studying Social Studies and African American Studies with a focus on women’s rights, racial justice, and the law. She works as an Assistant Producer and intern at Ms. Studios at Ms. Magazine, where she hosts The Z Factor: Gen Z’s Voice and Vote and helped produce Torn Apart: Abolishing Family Policing and Reimagining Child Welfare and United Bodies. At Harvard, she runs the Future Leaders in Public Service Conference for public service-minded high school students and is the lead singer in the all-senior pop/funk band Charles Revival. Her work has been featured in Vice News, the Harvard Gazette, the Washington Post, the New York Times, and Ms. Magazine. She is excited to champion youth voices in every space.

Background reading:

Transcript:

00:00:20 Anoushka Chander:

Generation Z. We’re the most diverse generation in American history. We’re the screenagers, the digital natives, the Zoomers. We are the youth activist generation and the climate change generation. But who is Gen Z, really? Welcome to episode one of The Z Factor: Gen Z’s Voice and Vote. I am your host Anoushka Chander. On this podcast, we amplify the voices of young people in America, from students in Florida fighting book bans, to young lawmakers in Tennessee working to end gun violence, to young people just trying to make it by every day. 

Are you Gen Z? Gen Z was born between the mid 1990s and early 2010s, so we are between the ages of 12 and 27. Our formative years were marked by a global pandemic, rapid climate change, rampant gun violence, democratic backsliding, and movements for women’s rights and racial justice. An estimated 41 million Gen Z voters will be eligible to cast a ballot this November, including eight million voters who have turned 18 since 2020. Our generation will have a critical impact on this election and the future of our country. 

In our opening episode, I want to level-set by learning a bit about Generation Z as a whole. What are we thinking about? What do we care about? And I thought we’d dive into that with some good old-fashioned polling. I’m thrilled to welcome Anil Cacodcar, the student chair of the Harvard Public Opinion Project, which has been conducting the leading biannual poll of young Americans in the country for over two decades. Thank you so much for joining me, Anil.

00:02:02 Anil Cacodcar:

Thanks for having me, Anoushka.

00:02:04 Anoushka Chander:

So, I’m excited to chat with you about the new, the two new spring polls, spring and fall polls that the Public Opinion Project has released, one in April and one in September, and I want to first ask a big picture question, what are some of the key findings from these two youth polls of 2024?

00:02:21 Anil Cacodcar:

Absolutely. I mean, the whole reason this poll really started back in 2000 was because a group of students were curious about why young people were willing to engage in community service, you know, be active locally but were hesitant to vote and make their voices heard at the ballot box. And my biggest takeaway from the spring poll and the fall poll has been just the unprecedented level of civic engagement that we’re seeing from young voters. I mean, in 2018 and 2020, again in 2022, we saw record-breaking youth turnout and our two most recent polls reflect that young people are prepared to have their voices heard. 

00:02:58 Anoushka Chander:

Absolutely. There was record-breaking youth turnout, particularly in the Biden election in 2020, and I’m curious now that we’re coming up with a new election in 2024 in November, what are the issues that Generation Z cares the most about? What are they prioritizing in this election? What’s bringing us to the polls?

00:03:15 Anil Cacodcar:

Yeah, I think it’s, you know, it’s easy to look at Generation Z politically and think about all the ways in which it differs from other generations. You know, we’re younger, we hadn’t experienced, you know, the US during the Cold War, we haven’t really, you know, seen the US rally around you know a particular cause together as a generation. And it’s easy to draw boundaries between Gen Z and say millennials, or boomers, or Gen X, but one thing I want to highlight here is that many of the same issues that affect, you know, Gen Z are also affecting older generations as well, namely the economy. It’s just how they’re impacting Gen Z that’s a little bit different.

So, no matter how you slice it, you know, in a poll young people believe that the economy is top of mind with this election. In our spring poll, we found that inflation, healthcare, and housing were our top three concerns. And other polls have found, you know, similar results to that end, and I mean what I want to highlight too is, you know, particularly the housing component. Generation Z was born post- or even during the 2008, you know, housing crisis. You know the oldest members of this generation were born in 1997, I believe, you know it depends on how you divide things. But you know this is a generation that’s largely been defined by housing boom and bust, and elevated prices particularly in urban areas, but also in suburban and rural areas as well. 

And when you have you know something that takes up 40 percent of your paycheck and elected officials aren’t talking about it there is a problem. Now, in recent months we’ve seen a sort of growth in that conversation, more people are talking about what it means to, you know, pursue the American dream to own a home and what that American dream really looks like.

00:04:59 Anoushka Chander:

Absolutely. And I want to follow-up on these questions of the economy being top of mind for young voters, not only about housing, but about the ability to get a job and to have a fair paying job in this economy. How do you think that’s impacting young voters today as well?

00:05:15 Anil Cacodcar:

Yeah, absolutely. I mean, you know, 18 to 29 that’s sort of the age range when you’re entering the workforce whether that’s through part-time employment or you know full-time employment if you are lucky to get that right off the bat. You have some folks roughly, you know, depending on where you are in the country, a third to a half will go to, you know, go to college in this age group and you know those paths tend to veer in different directions for many young people. But what unites them at the end is sort of this like uncertainty over, you know, how are you going to make ends meet? 

You know, people seem to, these days, bump from job to job more often than pursuing, say, you know a single career at a single firm as was, you know, the custom for many, many generations before us. And you know this was part of the reason back when the Affordable Care Act was being, you know, debated in Congress that politicians and elected officials they thought that extending parent’s health insurance to cover their children up until the age of 26 was super important because so much of our health insurance is dependent on, you know, employer-based insurance. 

So, that is, you know, one of the things that really connected, you know, the work of Congress to young people back then, over a decade ago, and we’re still seeing some of those concerns brought up today.

00:06:28 Anoushka Chander:

So, I want to go back to a point that you made about youth engagement in this election. In the spring poll, you found that more than half of young Americans said that they will vote in the upcoming election. At that time, President Biden was the presumptive Democratic nominee for President, and you reported that he had a commanding lead among young voters yet enthusiasm for his candidacy was lower than that of former President Trump. So, how does this new fall poll that’s come out in late September reflect Vice President Harris’s candidacy? Does she have more youth enthusiasm and support than President Biden?

00:07:03 Anil Cacodcar:

Absolutely. I mean, when you looked at the spring Biden yes that’s correct he was leading among 18 to 29 year olds in this particular poll, but he was down relative to where he was in 2020. And you know since the spring we’ve really seen a surge in youth enthusiasm and voter intention among young Democrats in particular. So, Harris has extended Biden’s margin from the spring significantly among those young voters who are most likely to turn out at the ballot box. She leads by 31 points. You know, back in the spring with Biden this was 10, 15 points lower depending on how you, you know, screened for likely voters. 

And you know before Harris had entered the race Republicans were really at an advantage with youth enthusiasm. Folks who said that they were voting for Trump were more likely, much more likely to say that they were enthusiastic about doing so. You know, it was like 4 in 10 young Biden voters that said they were, you know, enthusiastic about voting for him and 7 in 10 for young Trump supporters. Today, that figure for Trump has stayed the same, whereas 8 in 10 Harris supporters are enthusiastic about voting for her. So, really the tides have turned on the enthusiasm part of this gain. 

00:08:17 Anoushka Chander:

That’s really interesting. And I’m curious about another aspect of the fall poll that just came out, which was you guys asked young voters whether social media had played a role in Vice President Harris’s renewed enthusiasm. And so I’m curious, like, you know what is the role of social media in this huge increase in youth enthusiasm for Kamala Harris?

00:08:40 Anil Cacodcar:

Yeah, I think one of the important, you know, roles that public opinion research has to play is grounding us. And you know we all come from our own respective echo chambers, so to have a probability-based sample that you know directly asks people how have, you know how have meme’s impacted your opinion of Kamala Harris, for example, is really, you know, insightful. Because if you’re sort of on the coconut tree side of, you know, TikTok, or you know like the Gen Z Republican side of YouTube, for example, you’re going to see completely different things and you’re going to assume that your generation is totally onboard with your particular candidate. 

And what we found is that, you know, yes young people are seeing the sort of informal content, it’s how they’ve gotten to know Kamala Harris, she’s a relatively new candidate for Gen Z, but most, around half actually, of young voters you know say that this content hasn’t really changed their opinion of Kamala Harris. Now, overall the content seems to benefit her. You know, we’re seeing more people who see memes about Kamala Harris reported having a positive impact on their perception compared to Trump. So, definitely, you know, the coconut tree is there but it’s not really, you know, looming over the entire election, so to speak. 

00:09:58 Anoushka Chander:

That’s really fascinating. So, I want to shift our conversation away from, you know, the two political figures who are leading in this election to the issues that young people really care about on the ground. So, in the spring poll you guys reported that economic concerns, as we spoke about before, were top of mind for young voters. But the only time the economy did not win in a matchup between the economy and another issue was when it was compared to women’s reproductive freedom. Young voters said that reproductive freedom was actually more important by 57 percent to 43 percent, so can you tell us a bit more about this kind of surprising and exciting finding?

00:10:37 Anil Cacodcar:

Absolutely. So, let me, let me put this sort of issue ranking into context. So, the way that we asked this question was very new, we hadn’t done anything like this in the past. What we did is we took 16 issues and we presented them in random pairs and we asked people, which of these issues is more important to you and to what extent, right? So, maybe we would do student debt and immigration. And then someone would say, you know, immigration is much more important to me, or student debt is somewhat more important to me, and what we did is we calculated like a win rate, so the percentage of the time that an issue won against the field. 

And when you looked at that win rate women’s reproductive rights was high, but not as high as the economy. Interestingly, though, when you pitted women’s reproductive rights against the economy, which was sort of like the narrative for a while with this election, right? You know, you had you know a struggling economy for many young people, you also had Dobbs, you know, being present in the background of all of our political dialogue. So, when you pitted those, you know, rhetorically right next to each other people, you know, many young people, a majority of young people, made the connection and said, oh, women’s reproductive rights in this context is more important. So, that is particularly interesting. 

We were speaking to young voters in Michigan, Metro Detroit particularly, the week of the Michigan primary. So, this was in March, first week of March, a very exciting time to be there and we had one young lady in her mid 20s talking about how, you know, her big issue for this election was the economy. And then, you know, sort of at the end of her response, as she was trailing off, she you know perked back up again and she started talking about women’s reproductive rights very passionately. And so you could sort of see how the more she talked about the election and the more she talked about how her vote was going to be decided, the more important women’s reproductive rights became to her in that particular context. 

So, you know that particular case was super interesting because she wrapped everything up and she told us, you know, I can’t really think about the economy without thinking about women’s reproductive rights because the two are so related to me. So, for many young women, and in the fall poll we found that young women are particularly driving the charge towards Harris in terms of voter intention and enthusiasm, that women’s reproductive rights and the economy sort of go hand in hand about, you know, making the choices about family and fertility on your own terms.

00:13:04 Anoushka Chander:

Absolutely. And as you said, I think young women understand, more than any other demographic, how intertwined reproductive freedom, bodily autonomy, and the economy is, so those findings are really, are really important. So, I want to talk a bit more about, you know, trends among young voters. We’ve seen a growing gender divide among youth voters. There’s a larger gap between young men and women in our generation than in any previous generations and the fall poll found that, that gap nearly doubled from 17 points in the spring to 30 points this fall. 

So, how are the youth polls capturing this gender divide? What are your thoughts on the cause of this gender gap? Have you gotten to speak with young people about why they’re leaning in a particular way and what’s behind this gender division? 

00:13:51 Anil Cacodcar:

Absolutely. I mean, the Times and Siena Poll recently found that the Gen Z, you know, gender gap was the highest among all of the generations that they surveyed, so you know Gen Z is really the place to look at when you want to study the gender gap. And what we found is that from spring to fall young men actually moved toward Harris, so it wasn’t that they were moving away from Harris, but their levels of support for the Democratic ticket are not matching their level of support for Biden in 2020.  So, Trump has made some significant inroads with young men and particularly the boost in enthusiasm was most significant for young women. 

So, it’s not to say that young men are overwhelmingly, you know, adopting conservative ideology, in fact, they support many of the same tenets of the Democratic Party as their women counterparts do. For example, their views on government spending to relieve poverty, their views on climate change, their views on health insurance provided by the government, are comparable to what they were four years ago and comparable to their women counterparts, right? So, it’s really sort of a disaffection from the label and a disaffection from, you know, the ticket that is driving this sort of, this gap right here. 

Its super interesting because you have thousands and thousands of young men every day who turn 18 and you know 70 percent of them have values that align with the Democratic Party. So, this gender gap is particularly puzzling and the fact that it’s widened is even, you know, more cause for concern for the Democratic Party.

00:15:26 Anoushka Chander:

Another one of the findings from the poll that I was fascinated by is that youth confidence in public institutions like the Presidency, the Supreme Court, Congress, and the military, is eroding. Can you tell us about this discovery? Why do you think young people don’t trust government and our public institutions anymore?

00:15:45 Anil Cacodcar:

That is such an amazing question. Because at the same time as young people are, you know, losing their trust in public institutions, I mean we have been tracking trust for over a decade now and every year it will move maybe like one or two points on our scale, and post-COVID really, you know, the Supreme Court, the US military, Congress, the President, all took tremendous hits in institutional trust. And that, you know, those decreases were partisan in many cases, those decreases fell along gender lines in many cases. 

So, you know, we used to see what you know historically were, you know, institutions supported broadly are now institutions supported by only one part or maybe a few parts of Gen Z, for example. And at the same time that young Americans are losing trust in these institutions, they’re also looking to government for more solutions, right? When you ask about, you know, how, how we as a society should handle healthcare, housing, you know, the economy, those very important issues for young people, they tend to point fingers toward the government and say, you know, the government should be doing X, Y, and Z. The government should be resolving this. 

At the same time, they don’t trust the government to do the right thing. So, I think it’s that tension right there, that pull in one direction for government to, you know, address their concerns on a day-to-day basis, but their pull of distrust that’s pushing them to the polls.

00:17:05 Anoushka Chander:

That’s extremely fascinating and also, you know, the tension between I want the government to solve this for me, I want the government to represent me, but also, you know, I’m seeing what the Supreme Court has done. I’m seeing the way it’s rolled back rights and I don’t, I don’t have faith in those kinds of institutions. That’s really fascinating and something I’m hearing from young people as well. I want to, I also want to ask, you know, about youth mental health. Like how are we doing? Are the kids all right? Like what did this poll tell us about the emotional and mental state of young Americans?

00:17:37 Anil Cacodcar:

Absolutely. We’ve been tracking mental health only for a few short years ever since 2020 the pandemic. I mean, that is the time when we realized, oh, my goodness we absolutely should have questions in this survey that allow us to connect youth mental health outcomes, and political engagement, and attitudes about the country. You know, there are some, there’s some research out there that shows that, you know, one of the strongest factors that contributes to a young person’s mental health is the way that they perceive their country, their society, because that’s a reflection of their future, right? That’s, you know, the place and the environment that they’re going to grow up in and have children in or, you know, maybe have a career in, or do both, right? 

So, those are you know some of the, you know, factors at play right here. And what we found is that mental health outcomes during the, you know, pandemic were particularly serious. And since then we’ve, you know, very optimistically, you know, but also cautiously can say that there’s been a marginal improvement in the share of young people who report serious mental health pathology. So, you know, whether that trend continues is a different question, but we’ve seen marginal decreases since that high-water mark of 2020. At the same time, there are millions and millions of young Americans out there who still struggle daily with mental health issues, roughly half of our sample says that they felt down, depressed or hopeless at least, you know, a few days in the past two weeks. 

You know, that is a serious figure to think about and you know maybe five to 10 percent say that they have serious suicidal ideation on a regular basis. So, this is, you know, something that policymakers should be very cognizant of. I mean, even if, you know, you only have three, four, five percent of a generation thinking that those are you know countless people walking around on our college campuses on, you know, in our schools, you know, around town with some of the darkest thoughts that a human can have. So, being aware of, you know, that side of things too is very important as not only elected officials try to relate to Gen Z, but also other parts of our society as well.

00:19:34 Anoushka Chander:

Thank you so much, Anil. I think that it’s extremely serious to hear, you know, that so many folks in our generation are experiencing these acute mental health struggles. And I absolutely agree, I mean, it’s important to tie youth mental health to our political engagement and to see, you know, how can you feel hopeful about your own future if you don’t feel like you have a role in this economy or in this democracy. So, you know, final question, Anil, is there anything else about this poll that surprised you or taught you something about Gen Z that you think is important to share?

00:20:08 Anil Cacodcar:

Absolutely. Working on this poll for the past few years has taught me that Gen Z is really resilient. Gen Z is a generation that is, you know, ready to act. This is a generation that’s voting at twice the rate our parents are voting, were voting when they were our age. So, to think about how excited young people are to be a part of, you know, the United States really speaks to me. I mean, you know, the American dream is very near and dear to my heart as the children of immigrants, so to see that this generation as a whole, which is you know the most diverse generation we have in America right now, is very onboard with the American dream and hoping, you know, to make that dream a reality. 

00:20:44 Anoushka Chander:

Thank you so much, Anil. Final question, I’m starting a tradition of asking every guest to tell me what their political walk on stage song would be like, for example, Kamala Harris’s is Freedom by Beyoncé, so this is the serious question of our episode. What do you think your political walk on song would be?

00:21:03 Anil Cacodcar:

I’m from Louisiana, a place called Lafayette, and you know we love to celebrate Mardi Gras right there. And I think, you know, one of the best songs around that time of the year that I love to put on is the Mardi Gras Mambo, so that would definitely be my walk out song. 

00:21:16 Anoushka Chander:

Thank you so much, Anil, for joining us. This has been an amazing conversation and I’ve learned so much from you and I’m sure all of our listeners will be extremely grateful for your expertise.

00:21:26 Anil Cacodcar:

Awesome. Thank you so much for having me, Anoushka.

00:21:37 Anoushka Chander:Thank you for joining us on The Z Factor: Gen Z’s Voice and Vote, a podcast by and for Gen Z. I’m your host and producer Anoushka Chander. The Z Factor is a Ms. Magazine and Ms. Studios production. Michele Goodwin is our executive producer. Our producers for The Z Factor include Allison Whelan, Morgan Carmen, and Roxy Szal. Art and design by Brandi Phipps, sound engineering by Natalie Paredes, and music by DimmySad and SKH Sounds. We’ll be back next week with more episodes about what young people across America are thinking, feeling, and experiencing. See you next time.