House and Senate Swing to GOP, but Narrow Margins and Special Elections Could Shape Future Balance of Power

House races in many states remained uncertain for days after the election, but Republicans ultimately secured the House majority on Wednesday afternoon. Republicans also took control of the Senate, after flipping several key seats (West Virginia, Montana, Ohio) and holding others (Nebraska, Florida, Texas) to secure a majority. The conservative lean in all three branches of government—judicial, legislative and executive—marks the first GOP trifecta since 2017. Even still, votes are still being counted in some districts, and congressional power still hangs in the balance with special elections to be held in the coming months.

Control of the U.S. House of Representatives would have helped Democrats block or significantly alter Republican legislative initiatives after President-elect Donald Trump takes his seat at the White House in January 2025. A House majority would have allowed Democrats to block Republican bills, like a national abortion ban, and push forward and negotiate their own legislative goals, like protecting women’s rights, LGBTQ rights and healthcare access, and slowing the climate crisis. 

Even so, the GOP will hold only a slim majority, which poses several challenges for the party, making governance and implementing their agenda more difficult. With a slim majority, Republican leadership will have little margin for error when it comes to passing legislation.

The selection of House Republicans for positions in the Trump administration may further narrow this majority. Trump has appointed two members currently serving in the House: Rep. Mike Waltz (R-Fla.) as national security advisor and Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.) as ambassador to the United Nations. It is rumored that representatives from Alabama, Kentucky and North Carolina will also be appointed in the coming days. These appointments will trigger special elections, leaving the final makeup of the House uncertain.

Here is what we know now. 

This story will be updated as new races are called.

U.S. House of Representatives

So far, Republicans have flipped seven House seats, claiming control of the House. However, some races are still up for grabs up as votes roll and races are uncalled, notably in states along the West coast like California and Oregon. Democrats lost control of the House in 2022, and needed to flip at least four seats to regain it. Now, Democrats face the reality of a GOP trifecta, lacking a strong defense against the conservative agenda. 

Democrat Shomari Figures flipped a newly redrawn seat in Alabama’s 2nd Congressional District, making him the first Black person to hold the position since the 1800s. Once a Republican stronghold, the district was redrawn last year after a federal court ruled that Alabama had illegally weakened the influence of Black voters. 

While Democrat Josh Stein won his race for governor in North Carolina, gerrymandering continues to shape Congress as Democrats lost three House seats in the state. After the state faced redistricting earlier this year, it was predicted that up to four seats could swing in favor of the GOP. 

However, arguably the most-contested House race in Wisconsin was won by Republican Derrick Van Orden against Rebecca Cooke, who ran on a pro-choice platform. Before Van Orden took the seat in 2022, Democrats held the seat for 26 years. 

Another notable win for Democrats, Sarah McBride won her seat in the U.S. House in Delaware, becoming the first openly transgender person to serve in Congress. 

What Democrats saw as a possible win in Florida’s 13th Congressional District fell short with just under 55 percent of the vote going to Rep. Anna Luna (R). Before Luna’s congressional win in 2022, the seat was held by Democrat Charlie Crist. 

The first House seat of the night to flip in favor of Democrats came as John Mannion (D) won his race against incumbent Rep. Brandon Williams (R) in New York’s 22nd District with 54 percent of the vote. 

Rep. Hillary Scholten, who has been outspoken about her pro-choice and pro-abortion stance, won reelection in Michigan’s 3rd Congressional District. “In our country, we do not elevate one religion over the other, and the importance of making sure that choice is available and accessible to all, regardless of whether they’re choosing to continue their pregnancy or have an abortion, should not be based on one particular view of one particular religion,” Scholten told Ms. earlier this year

Also in Michigan, Democrat Kristen McDonald Rivet was able to secure District 8, filling the shoes of Rep. Dan Kildee (D) vacating the seat. As for the Senate, Democrat Elissa Slotkin defeated former Rep. Mike Rogers by just over 20,000 votes in Michigan. 

Virginia’s 2nd District, which has flipped two times since 2018, will remain in Republican’s hands after Rep. Jen Kiggans secured a seat against Democrat Missy Cotter Smasal.

However, one of Virginia’s most contested House seats, District 7, was taken by Democrat Eugene Vindman, defeating Republican Derrick Anderson. 

Democratic Rep. Yadira Caraveo lost her race for reelection in Colorado‘s 8th District to Republican Gabe Evans. Evans flipped the seat with just under 2,600 votes, helping Republicans to gain House control.

U.S. Senate

The GOP secured control of the Senate with at least 52 seats, flipping seats in West Virginia, Ohio and Montana:

  • In West Virginia, Jim Justice (R) flipped a seat with almost 69 percent of the vote against Glenn Elliot (D). 
  • Bernie Moreno (R) narrowly flipped a Senate seat in Ohio against Sherrod Brown (D).
  • Tim Sheeshy (R) flipped a seat in Montana against incumbent Jon Tester (D). 

In Wisconsin, Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D) won her race for reelection with narrow margins in the battleground state that sided with Trump by 30,000 votes. Baldwin, up against Republican Trump-endorsed Eric Hovde, has promised to protect abortion rights, and was the first openly lesbian woman and LGBT person elected to the U.S. Senate in 2012. 

Democrat Ruben Gallego secured his Senate seat in Arizona against Republican Kari Lake, who ran in support of Arizona’s near-total abortion ban, an 1864 law that that the Arizona Supreme Court ruled to go into effect earlier this year. The measure has since been overturned by voters with 61 percent of the vote, demonstrating that voters overwhelmingly support abortion access.

Republican David McCormick flipped a Senate seat in the battleground state of Pennsylvania, beating out Democrat incumbent Sen. Bob Casey. Like many Republicans that support the president-elect, McCormick celebrated Roe’s fall and has since attempted to present a more palatable stance on abortion, stating he would oppose a federal ban. He has also moved towards providing exceptions for rape and incest.

But exceptions to abortion bans seldom work in practice, often failing to protect low-income women and women of color. According to Reproductive Freedom for All and “if [McCormick] is elected to the Senate, McCormick will be a rubber stamp for a national abortion ban.”

About

Livia Follet is an editorial intern for Ms. and a recent graduate from The University of Colorado Boulder where she earned bachelor's degrees in English literature and women and gender studies. Raised in rural Colorado, her interests include environmental justice movements, Indigenous feminisms and reproductive justice.