The gender gap may reach record levels in 2024 and, depending on who turns out to vote, it could determine the outcome of the presidential election. The latest Fox News poll finds that enthusiasm is highest among white college-educated women and lowest among white non-college educated men—a finding that benefits Democrats.
The successful formula for Democrats is clear: Win women by more than you lose men. The formula for Republicans is the reverse.
There is another key dynamic here, however: Married couples often vote the same way, in part, because you choose a partner who shares your values. But, increasingly, even married couples find themselves at odds in an election where one side appears to be messaging primarily to men and the other sending strong signals to women.
Historically, a not insignificant segment of married women have told us that they are either not as interested or attuned to politics and elections as their husbands and may turn to them for cues on how to vote. And some men are only more than happy to oblige. Writers such as Rebecca Traister and Lyz Lenz have reported on women being intimidated by their husbands’ views on how they voted. This year, an 81-year-old Georgia woman voted for the very first time after a long marriage to a man—now deceased—who told her not to vote because her vote would not matter.
Researcher Marte Strom has shown that the male dominance model of political opinions and votes applies most to working class individuals. The challenge for Democrats then is to keep non-college educated women from voting the same way as their spouses. White non-college educated men are overwhelmingly supportive of Trump and are a key part of his base, and we are also seeing more non-college educated Hispanic men trending Republican this year too. White non-college educated women typically vote Republican, although by less dramatic margins than men, while Hispanic non-college women may prove to be a critical cohort for Democrats if they can offset anticipated losses with the men.
On the other side, Republicans need to prevent college-educated men (particularly white men) from drifting left which is where college-educated women (particularly white women) have been increasingly moving since the Trump era. Black voters historically have not had large gender gaps, although this election cycle there has been attention on the higher levels of support for Trump in polls among Black men than among Black women.
College educated women are focused strongly on abortion rights and threats to democracy and a substantial number are motivated simply by defeating Donald Trump. They feel less pressure to vote in sync with their spouses. In focus groups we have had college educated women say they are voting Democratic because of the Dobbs decision. They relay that they have argued with their spouses that this is about control and freedom and that daughters should not live in a world where they have fewer rights than their moms. Will these college-educated women convince their spouses—“Dobbs dads“—to vote for Harris to protect the rights of their daughters? That would be a scenario that Republicans will want to try to prevent.
In the latest national poll from a bipartisan team of researchers on behalf of NBC, both non-college educated white men and women are in the Trump camp, as are white college-educated men. White college-educated women favor Harris.
| Vote by education level (among registered voters) | ||
| Trump | Harris | |
| White men, some college or less | 68% | 29% |
| White women, some college or less | 62% | 36% |
| White men, college graduates+ | 49% | 46% |
| White women, college graduates+ | 35% | 63% |
(The survey of 1,000 registered voters was conducted Oct. 4-8, 2024. Crosstabs did not break out non-white men and women by educational attainment.)
There will undoubtedly be more discussions between spouses between now and Election Day, and both sides will be hoping they will be the ones to benefit.
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