RepresentWomen says record women candidates and likely firsts show voters are ready for women to lead. Better-designed elections can ensure these wins for women become the norm.
In the (ongoing) midterm elections, women across the country are poised to celebrate historic firsts, especially when it comes to governor races. Right now, we sit on the precipice of potentially electing the first woman governors in Tennessee, Ohio and Minnesota. If Keisha Lance Bottoms wins her race in Georgia, she would be the first Black woman governor in our nation’s 250 years. In New Mexico, Deb Haaland is poised to become the first Native American woman to serve as a state’s governor.
As a record number of women ran for U.S House this year, it’s likely that the headlines marking women’s wins will abound, as they should. But it’s been over a century since the suffragists stood outside the White House demanding women’s right to vote, and women are still celebrating historic firsts. It begs the question: What will women’s wins look like 100 years from today?
While headlines and historic markers present the illusion that the tides are turning for women in politics, women’s representation has not changed much in recent years. Women’s share of seats across every level of government has not changed at all from last year, according to RepresentWomen’s 2026 Gender Parity Index. The national parity score for the U.S. stands at 28.2—a “C” grade that falls markedly behind our democratic allies.
In the 2026 midterms, a record 590 women filed to run for House seats, a number largely driven by the number of Democratic women running, according to the Center for American Women and Politics (CAWP). However, the increased number of women candidates in recent years isn’t necessarily reflected in the electorate, as women are still just over a quarter of all major-party House candidates.
When it comes to candidate parity for the House, Democratic women are almost there, making up 45.5 percent of House nominees. Republican women lag behind at just 17.6 percent.
“This is a big election for our democracy and for women, and those two things are bound together,” said Cynthia Richie Terrell, founder and executive director of RepresentWomen. “Women will make history next week, and we’ll celebrate every one of them. But we can’t celebrate our way to parity. As long as our elections are designed as winner-take-all contests, women’s progress will rise and fall with each cycle.”
To follow along on Election Day, RepresentWomen’s 2026 election tracker will report results on women candidates in all 50 states and Washington, D.C., in real time.
What to Watch on Election Day
Georgia
Former Mayor Lance Bottoms could make history as the first Black woman governor if she wins her race in Georgia against Rick Jackson, a billionaire and healthcare executive who has contributed more than $100 million to his own campaign. Bottoms, who has focused her campaign heavily on the cost of living, has leaned into her identity as a mother along the campaign trail.
Voters have weighed this milestone before, turning down Stacey Abrams for the job twice. Latest polls show a tight race.
New Mexico
New Mexico is poised to make waves if Deb Haaland, former United States secretary of the interior, wins her race for governor against Republican Greg Hull. If she wins, she will become the first Native American woman governor in U.S. history. Haaland is no stranger to historic firsts; she became the first Native American to hold a Cabinet secretary position in 2021.
Amendment 4
Further down the ballot, New Mexicans will decide on Constitutional Amendment 4, which has the potential to introduce legislative pay in the Land of Enchantment.
New Mexico is currently the only state in the country that does not pay its legislatures a salary, only a per diem. Under the current system, many legislators are required to hold second jobs or come from a socioeconomic background that allows them to work without sufficient compensation. The amendment would set pay equal to the state’s median household income, currently around $68,000, beginning in 2029.
RepresentWomen’s research finds that legislative pay is a structural barrier to women’s representation because it directly determines who can run and who can afford to stay in office.
Amendment 4 has significant potential to diversify the electorate and make elections more competitive. By providing a salary, incumbents are more likely to be challenged, especially by people who come from working class backgrounds.
Ohio
Dr. Amy Acton, a pediatrician and former health director, is running against Vivek Ramaswamy, a billionaire who recently ran an ad attacking Acton as a survivor of childhood sexual abuse. If she wins, she would become Ohio’s first woman governor. Decidedly one of the most competitive gubernatorial races in the country, Ohio’s race tells the story as to how women fare in a political world where men dominate.
Minnesota
The first all-woman major party race in Minnesota is set to take place on Election Day between Democratic Sen. Amy Klobuchar and Republican Speaker of the Minnesota House of Representatives Lisa Demuth. No matter the outcome, a first woman governor for the state is guaranteed—breaking through the glass ceiling 33 other states have shattered.
In the open U.S. Senate race, two women face each other: Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan, who would be among the first Native women ever elected to the Senate, and Republican Michelle Tafoya, who would be the first Republican Latina senator.
Across the board, Minnesota is all but guaranteed to make history twice.
Maine
Former Maine House Speaker Hannah Pingree holds the Democratic nomination for governor of the state and is running against Republican Bobby Charles. At just 26 years old, she became the youngest woman in U.S. history to be elected state house speaker. Pingree is proving so far to be a popular candidate as she received the nomination through a ranked-choice voting election.
New Hampshire
New Hampshire, one of three “A” states in RepresentWomen’s Gender Parity Index, will elect a woman governor for the second time in a row. In fact, this is the first time that two women have gone up against each other for a state’s highest office in consecutive election cycles, providing a window into what parity for women in politics could one day look like. RepresentWomen’s polling with Murmuration shows that Americans believe that the political system needs change, New Hampshire’s race provides a snapshot of what that change could look like. Republican incumbent Kelly Ayotte and Democrat candidate Cinde Warmington are set for a competitive race.
The Gap Between Republican and Democratic Women Widens
Some of the night’s biggest milestones for women may come from Republicans. In Tennessee, Sen. Marsha Blackburn is favored to become the state’s first woman governor. In Wyoming and Louisiana, Reps. Harriet Hageman and Julia Letlow are favored to win the open U.S. Senate seats. In Oregon, Christine Drazan is vying to become the state’s first Republican woman governor. Republican women also match their party’s record for the U.S. Senate nominees this year.
But wins at the top of the ticket don’t tell the whole story. Further down the ballot, the picture for Republican women is far less encouraging. In Congress today, 43 percent of Democrats are women, compared to 15 percent of Republicans.
This year, Republican women won their House primaries at a lower rate than Republican men, according to CAWP. And CAWP’s final forecasts suggest Democrat women could set a new record in the House, while a record for Republican women is unlikely and a decline is possible. That would widen the gap even further.
“Women are not a monolith,” Terrell said. “A system that only produces gains for women in one party will always hit a ceiling, no matter how many Democratic women run and win. Every woman deserves a seat at a table designed with her in mind.”
Record Spending, Predictable Results: Incumbents Poised to Win—and Most are Men
Few forces in American politics are as powerful as incumbency and we are seeing that play out in this midterm election.
In 2024, 97 percent of members of Congress who sought reelection won, according to Ballotpedia, and the House reelection rate has not dropped below 85 percent in any cycle since 1964. Even in a year marked by retirements and primary upsets, most incumbents who reach November will keep their seats. Because men hold roughly seven in 10 seats in Congress, that advantage overwhelmingly protects men.
For women trying to break in this election, the odds are stark. In the last four years, only three women have defeated incumbents in a U.S. House race, and only one of them was a woman of color, according to analysis by Jacqueline Crespo, a researcher at RepresentWomen.
“There is a huge incumbency problem in our country, and it severely impacts the representation deficiency of our democracy,” Crespo said. “If women feel as though the electoral system is designed to retain the incumbent, then they don’t feel encouraged or supported to challenge the incumbent at all.”
Money reinforces that rigidity. This is the most expensive midterm election in U.S. history: ad-tracking firm AdImpact projects spending will reach $11.6 billion, surpassing both the 2022 midterm record and the 2024 presidential cycle. Much of that money flows to people already in office. An analysis of health insurance industry PACs found that $4.2 million was spent directly to candidates with 97 percent of their contributions going to incumbents; challengers and candidates in open seats shared only roughly $128,000. This is just one stark example of the trends we are seeing in contributions from key funders and PACs across the country.
Women also start with unequal access to funding. According to CAWP, eight of the top 10 self-financers in this year’s competitive races are men, and women candidates rely more heavily on small-dollar donors. Women gave just 31 percent of the money contributed to Republican women running for Congress.
Yet money alone doesn’t change the outcome. In most of this year’s competitive races with both a woman and man on the ballot, the woman led the money race, CAWP found, and funding for women candidates has never been higher. Still, women’s share of seats hasn’t moved.
In winner-take-all elections, where most seats are safe for one party, the outcome is largely decided before a single dollar is spent, and no amount of fundraising can change that.
… We can’t celebrate our way to parity. As long as our elections are designed as winner-take-all contests, women’s progress will rise and fall with each cycle.
Cynthia Richie Terrell
Solutions on the Ballot: Ranked-Choice Voting
If the problem is structural, so is the solution. Ranked-choice voting lets voters rank candidates in order of preference, so a winner needs a majority support, not just a plurality. That means more candidates, including women challengers, can run without being labeled a “spoiler” or splitting the votes, and an incumbent can no longer coast to victory with a minority of support. When more people run and a winner has to earn a majority, elections become more competitive.
It’s notable that the two states that use ranked-choice voting for statewide federal elections are home to some of this year’s most competitive races. In Alaska, the U.S. Senate race between incumbent Dan Sullivan and former Rep. Mary Peltola is a toss-up that could help decide control of the Senate.
In Maine, Sen. Susan Collins faces one of the most closely watched and expensive reelection contests in the country. In both states, voters are getting real choices, and incumbents are having to compete for every vote.
On Tuesday, ranked-choice voting is also on the ballot in places with a track record for women. Since Alaska adopted its current system, voters there have elected the state’s first majority women state House and its most racially diverse legislature ever—and on Tuesday, Alaskans will decide again whether to keep that system.
In Longmont, Colo., voters will decide on a proportional form of ranked choice voting, which elects multiple winners from the same race so that gains for women can build on one another rather than simply trade places.
Voters in Honolulu, and Irvine, Calif., will also decide whether to adopt ranked-choice voting.
What This Means for Parity
When the results are in, RepresentWomen expects most states to move up on the Gender Parity Index, as noted in their 2026 Election Predictions memo. But even then, 33 states are projected to earn a “C” or “D,” leaving significant room for improvement at every level of government. A leading reason is the gap between the number of Democratic and Republican women elected. Democratic women are approaching parity while Republican women remain far behind, and the country can’t reach parity on gains from one party alone.
Whatever the headlines say on Wednesday morning, as long as women’s wins remain the exception and not the norm, parity will stay on the horizon.
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Poll after poll shows a majority of Americans support reproductive healthcare access. Yet public debate overlooks the lives shaped by abortion access, contraception, IVF, miscarriage care, maternal healthcare or comprehensive sex education—countless women who chose to pursue an education, have children, not have children, protect their health and chart their own future. What’s your reproductive freedom story? Add your voice. Together, these stories will help show not only why reproductive freedom remains a majority value, but also what it makes possible.
